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Kulkarni, Ashwini
- Monsoon Variability, the 2015 Marathwada Drought and Rainfed Agriculture
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Authors
Affiliations
1 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411 008, IN
2 Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru 560 012, IN
1 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411 008, IN
2 Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru 560 012, IN
Source
Current Science, Vol 111, No 7 (2016), Pagination: 1182-1193Abstract
The impact of the drought of the summer monsoon of 2015 has been particularly large in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra which is now facing unprecedented water scarcity and more than one thousand farmers have committed suicide. Substantial losses in the production of important crops such as pulses have been reported in Maharashtra. Naturally, the Marathwada drought has been extensively covered in the print and electronic media. The large impact has been attributed to exceptionally large deficit in rainfall by some journalists and politicians, to two successive droughts in 2014 and 2015 by some and some have considered the drought to be a manifestation of climate change. In this article, we present an analysis of the Marathwada monsoon rainfall from 1871 onwards and show that the quantum of deficit rainfall in 2015 as well as the occurrence of two successive droughts is within the observed variability of the Marathwada rainfall and the 2015 monsoon rainfall also cannot be considered as a manifestation of climate change. Thus the large impact of 2015 is a reflection of poor management of water resources and agriculture, despite the long experience of rainfall variability. We show that the prediction by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) of a high chance of below normal rainfall or a drought on the all-India scale and the occurrence of El Nino could have been used to anticipate large deficiency in Marathwada rainfall. We suggest that the problem of lack of progress in the production of rainfed crops such as pulses has to be addressed by using the rich rainfall data sets in the country to generate information which can be used by farmers and agricultural scientists to identify strategies, which are tailored to the entire spectrum of rainfall variability experienced. Towards this end an interactive software 'RAINFO' has been developed at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology ((IITM), Pune to provide location-specific information derived from the IMD data, on the desired facets of rainfall variability.Keywords
Marathwada Drought, Rainfall Variability, Rainfed Agriculture, RAINFO.References
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- Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Crop Production in Maharashtra, India
Abstract Views :213 |
PDF Views:77
Authors
Affiliations
1 Department of Atmospheric and Space Sciences, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune 411 007, IN
2 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, IN
1 Department of Atmospheric and Space Sciences, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune 411 007, IN
2 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, IN
Source
Current Science, Vol 118, No 8 (2020), Pagination: 1235-1245Abstract
This study estimates the possible effects of change in climatic factors on the production of major crops in Maharashtra, India. Daily precipitation, and minimum and maximum temperature simulated by a statistically downscaled MPI-ESM-MR model in NEX-GDDP archive have been used in the study. Under RCP4.5, the analysis suggests a significant reduction in the production of three major crops, viz. sugarcane, cotton and rice. This decline is prominent in central and central-east Maharashtra. These findings imply the need to improve and develop new seed varieties that can withstand drastic changes in climate and also give high yield to combat food security of an increasing population.Keywords
Climate Variability And Change, Crop Production Projections, Food Security, Regression.References
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